U.S. AG Belt and Black Sea Region Trend Wetter

Fig. 1-2: The 1-7-day and 8-14-day ECM ENS precipitation amount forecast for the U.S. AG Belt.

Fig. 3-4: The 1-7-day and 8-14-day ECM precipitation amount forecast for the U.S. AG Belt.

Discussion: POTENTIALLY, quite wet across the U.S. AG Belt over the next 2 weeks especially in the 8-14-day period. Skill scores of the ECM ENS are routinely highest. The ECM ENS indicates a moderate 1-2-inch rainfall across much of the East-central U.S. in the 1-7-day outlook (Fig. 1). However, the 8-14-day forecast is trending wetter with a large area of several inches of rain extending from Louisiana/Arkansas to The Ohio Valley (Fig. 2). During this time, an additional 1 inch of rain is likely for the Western Corn Belt. Precipitation forecast bias across the U.S. during the 6-10-day and 11-15-day period from the past 30 days is most skillful using the Operational ECM (model). The ECM is a little heavier (than ECM ENS) in the 1-7-day forecast, especially Iowa (Fig. 3). However, the model unloads heavy precipitation across both the East-central U.S. and western Corn Belt in the 8-14-day period (Fig. 4). ECM is alone forecasting a deep trough over the Continental Divide in the extended range. The ECM ENS is the “official” forecast which is a wetter trend. The “caveat” forecast is the wetter ECM as U.S. AG areas gain needed rainfall although disruptive to planting.

The pattern is changing in Europe/Western Russia. Wet risk shifts eastward, away from Southwest Europe, and toward the Black Sea region in the 1-7-day period according to AI Graph Cast (Fig. 5). In the 8-14-day period, the wet weather signature is less bold but centered over the Black Sea region and northeastward into the Russia Spring Wheat Belt (Fig. 6). Note that during this sequence, West and Central Europe are very dry with some areas receiving no precipitation in the 2-week period.

Fig. 5-6: The AI Graph Cast 1-7-day and 8-14-day percent of normal precipitation forecast across Europe and Western Russia.