Severe Weather/Synoptic Scale Widespread Damaging Wind Ahead for U.S. Weekend
03/13/2025, 8:33 am EDT
Charts of the day: Last 7 days precipitation and daily soil moisture anomalies.
Discussion: During the past 7 days, heavy rain has affected Portugal and Spain to Northern Italy with areas to the north staying dry from U.K. eastward to the Black Sea region. Soil moisture deficits continue to increase across Eastern Europe to Southwest Russia.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 23-29, 2025: Southwest Europe rains spreading northward.
Discussion: The persistent Southwest Europe low pressure area continues to produce heavy precipitation expanding northward across France and into Germany while the Black Sea region stays drier than normal. Anomalous warmth dominates most of the region.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 30-April 5, 2025: Wet weather reaches Western Russia and possibly Ukraine.
Discussion: A fetch of moisture extends from the upper low over Southwest Europe into Western Russia. The dry zone centered on the Black Sea shifts eastward. Anomalous warmth continues to dominate Eastern Europe/Western Russia.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 6-12, 2025: Pattern is not as dry as March.
Discussion: The upper trough remains over Southwest Europe with an attendant wet fetch extending to Western Russia although without significant rainfall risk. Much of the region remains warmer than normal.