Major Severe Weather Outbreak South-central and East U.S. Next 2 Days

Fig. 1-4: Today’s NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook including tornado risk area and the HRRR radar forecast of 1^st and 2^nd peak intensities for today.

Discussion: A major severe weather outbreak is forecast for today across northern Gulf States and Mid-south U.S. (Fig. 1). A large area is forecast to receive tornado risk from Texarkana to Mobile today/tonight (Fig. 2). A Tornado Watch is in effect for North-central Texas now. The HRRR (model) projects the first peak of squall line intensity with this outbreak around daybreak this morning from Tulsa to near Dallas (Fig. 3). The second peak in intensity of today’s squall line is early this evening located along the Alabama/Mississippi State Line and featuring widespread tornado risk (Fig. 4). On Wednesday, the severe weather risk shift is into the East (Fig. 5). Tornado risk continues centered on the eastern Carolinas and southeast Virginia (Fig. 6). HRRR projects the first squall line peak intensity for early afternoon approaching Washington, DC southward to Raleigh (Fig. 7). A second peak of squall line intensity occurs as the line moves across the Atlantic Seaboard (Fig. 8). Both days will produce widespread damaging severe weather reports. In California, a 10-day storm track is projected and brings 3-8 inches of rain during that time with feet of snow especially the Sierra Nevada (Fig. 9). The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trends less warm including a somewhat colder ECM forecast for the week of March 14-20 (Fig. 10).

Fig. 5-8: Tomorrow’s NOAA/SPC severe weather outlook including tornado risk area and the HRRR radar forecast of 1^st and 2^nd peak intensities for tomorrow.

Fig. 9: ECM ENS projects excessive rain and mountain snow in the 10-day outlook across California.

Fig. 10: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 30-year/10-year normal.