Critically Dry Versus Wet Regional Soil Moisture Conditions Across U.S.

Chart of the day: Critically dry versus wetter regional soil moisture conditions.

Discussion: The weekly Crop Moisture Index valid for Sep. 8-14 reveals a wetter regime across the southeast quadrant of the U.S. while opposing critically dry conditions exist in the eastern Ohio Valley, much of the west and southwest Great Plains, and Southwest U.S.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid September 22-28, 2024: Hotter West, Wetter Central to Mid-Atlantic.

Discussion: ECM maintains the amplified ridge over Eastern Canada with a second increasingly stronger ridge over the Northwest U.S. The forecast trend is warmer on the West Coast, staying hot in the Southwest while anomalous warmth lingers across the Ohio Valley. Parts of the Great Plains to the Mid-Atlantic region trend wetter (therefore cooler). A tropical cyclone near Cuba is expected.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid September 29-October 5, 2024: Warmer West, temperate East.

Discussion: ECM develops an upper trough over the Eastern Ohio Valley. The upper ridge is across the West. The sensible weather trend is warmer West and temperate East. A distinct lack of important rainfall across the U.S. is indicated.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid October 6-12, 2024: Pattern looks dry.

Discussion: Dry and hot across the Southwest U.S. while the eastern half of the nation also looks dry and marginally warm.