Deluge of Rain Ahead on the Texas Coast

Highlight: Plenty to monitor in the North Atlantic basin, extreme rains northwest Gulf, and temperate/cool Central/East 12Z GFS.

Fig. 1-2: Many areas of thunderstorm activity in the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin and the NOAA/WPC 7-day U.S. rainfall forecast.

Discussion: The North Atlantic basin is steadily becoming more interesting regarding potential tropical events (Fig. 1). The outer North Atlantic basin contains 2 possible events developing this weekend. Similarly, the western Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea are convection active. The NOAA/WPC 7-day U.S. rainfall forecast indicates buckets across Northwest Texas, Coastal Texas/Louisiana, and Florida/Coastal Southeast (Fig. 2). The midday 12Z GFS has very similar 6-10-day and 11-15-day forecasts with hot weather across the West and temperate cool Great Plains to the Northeast Corridor (Fig. 3-4).

Fig. 3-4: The 12Z GFS medium range temperature anomaly forecast.

Table 1: The 12Z GFS U.S. population weight CDD forecast compared to 12 and 24 hours ago.