Heavy Rain and Severe Storms Mid-south States WED/THU

Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: Some rain, not a lot, with mountain light-to-moderate snow and attendant cold air moves into Southern California to start the week (Fig. 1). Freeze Warning extends to the coast south of San Francisco and Winter Storm Warnings for heavy mountain snows are issued well southwest of Los Angeles and the Southern Sierra Nevada. High wind ahead of Alberta Clipper storms stretch across the Great Lakes region. The Interior Northwest encounters a widespread air stagnation problem. The NOAA/WPC 1-3-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates generally light precipitation for Southern California during the next 2 days while the Great Lakes to Interior New England is snowy (Fig. 2). By Wednesday, heavy rain will develop across Texas. On Thursday, excessive rain including a severe weather threat affects the Mid-south U.S. (Fig. 3). Rain shifts to the Mid-Atlantic region by late week. A chance of snow in the Northeast U.S. next weekend while an atmospheric river pattern plows into the West Coast (Fig. 4). The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast continues to reveal a milder pattern ahead focused on next week followed by normally cold Feb. 7-13 (Fig. 5).

Fig. 2-4: NOAA/WPC 1-3-day, 4-5-day, and 6-7-day U.S. quantitative precipitation forecast.

Fig. 5: The U.S. population weight HDD forecast utilizing all operational models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.