Snow Covered Northwest/North Gulf Region Hit By Severe Cold

Fig. 1: NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas

Discussion: Several inches to one half foot of snow accumulated over the coastal Southeast Texas region yesterday with as much as 10.5 in. of snow in Lafayette, LA. Much of southern Louisiana received 5-10 in. of snow. Overnight, skies are clearing, and conditions are set for record cold mornings. Baton Rouge to Lafayette collapse to 5-7F this morning! Beaumont, TX could dip to near 10F. Houston will dip to the upper teens. As far south as Corpus Christi lowers to the low 20’s. Coastal Texas is almost as cold as temperatures produced by Uri in February 2021 while the Louisiana chill is record cold. A Winter Storm Warning for snow and ice in the Coastal Southeast U.S. abates after sunrise. The snow on the ground in the Gulf States, especially Louisiana, may linger mid-to-late week before melting entirely and with night skies staying clear additional extreme cold caused by radiational cooling is likely. The Extreme Cold Warning area highlights this historic cold this morning with a possible repeat for Thursday morning (Fig. 1). Extremely low relative humidity and wind gust potential to 60 mph leads to high fire risk and a Red Flag Warning in the south coastal region of California valid through tomorrow afternoon. The U.S. precipitation pattern becomes dry the remainder of the week. However, much needed rainfall in the Los Angeles Basin is forecast this weekend while a rainstorm develops across East Texas to Central Mississippi (Fig. 2). Early next week, additional significant rain is possible across the areas hard-hit by today’s freeze (Fig. 3). The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast trend is slightly warmer for next week and slightly colder for Jan. 31-Feb. 6 although trending back to near normal national heating demand (Fig. 4).

Fig. 2-3: NOAA/WPC 4-5-day and 6-7-day quantitative precipitation forecast.

Fig. 4: The U.S. population weight HDD forecast utilizing all operational models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.