On occasion, the GFS and ECM develop a tropical wave within the outer North Atlantic active ITCZ and carry that event west-northwest with development possible by late this week. GFS has produced two model runs that develop this system into a hurricane reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast in 13 days.

In Australia, the soil moisture conditions are turning drier on the East Coast and much of Western Australia. The latest 15-day outlooks indicate a changeable thermal pattern through 10 days but averaging mostly warmer than normal in the extended-range.

Further negative phase strengthening is expected as the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) activates and shifts east through the equatorial Pacific over the next 1-2 weeks and farther east across the Atlantic tropics in early August. The activated MJO/SOI combination should shutdown trade winds in the equatorial Pacific to allow warming of the surface and strengthen El Nino heading into August.

The North Atlantic basin is record warm. The Gulf of Mexico is also somewhat warmer than normal averaging 1.0C above normal. However, during the past week the waters just off the northern Gulf Coast have cooled significantly.