A major concern for summer 2023-24 in the southern hemisphere is a major drought in South America (Brazil) and Australia somewhat related to the developing El Nino climate and contributions by the positive phase Indian ocean dipole (+IOD). Early season torrid heat is developing across Australia.

The HRRR model projects the strongest wind gusts at mid-afternoon tomorrow throughout the coastal New England region including potential hurricane force gusts on the mid-to-upper Maine coast. At that time, high gusts continue as far south as Cape Cod.

Late season arid climate in the East-central U.S. has caused Mississippi River levels to lower below “low stage” as indicated at Memphis. The latest U.S. medium-range forecast is wetter in the Great Plains but will that rain help the river level?

The midpoint of the 2023 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season has passed after 15 tropical storms (8.5 is normal), 5 hurricanes (3.5 is normal), and 3 major hurricanes (1.5 is normal). The ACE index is 86.4 (62.4 is normal). On average, the seasonal tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts for 2023 were up to 21 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Given the pace we're on, the upper limit of seasonal forecast is certainly possible.