Fig. 1: The 2-week river gauge forecast at Tunica Mhoon Landing on the Mississippi River indicates water levels returning to 8 feet below “low stage”.
Discussion: River gauges along the central/south-central Mississippi River indicated a recent recovery to “low water” level. However, lack of rain in the 10-day-forecast causes water levels to lower again. At Tunica Mhoon Landing, water levels dip to 8 feet below “low water” by Nov. 21 (Fig. 1). The lowest level below “low water” was 10 feet one month ago.
South America 6-10-day forecasts have averaged too wet across Brazil using the ECM ENS (Fig. 2). The ECM and GFS are too dry with Argentina/Southeast Brazil forecasts (Fig. 3). The GFS ENS 6-10-day temperature forecast bias is much too hot while the GFS bias is tempered (Fig. 4-5).
Fig. 2-3: The ECM ENS and GFS ENS 6-10-day rainfall forecast bias across South America.
Fig. 4-5: The GFS ENS and GFS 6-10-day temperature forecast bias across South America.
The Brazil forecast through the next 15 days is scary as all models are indicating prohibitive heat and dryness likely to accelerate dry soil conditions (Fig. 6-7).
Fig. 6-7: The GFS 15-day temperature anomaly and percent of normal rainfall forecast across South America.