Satellite view reveals a persistent low-pressure trough extending northward from low pressure off the Southeast Australia Coast maintains wet weather in East Australia with hefty amount continuing. The latest 10-day outlook by GFS stays very wet in the East. There are some signs that the unexpected wet weather regime may ease after 10 days.

At the surface, forecast models are very warm across the U.S. HOWEVER, trouble may be brewing in the upper atmosphere. The ECM ENS indicates a stratospheric warming event taking place over northwestern North America while GFS has this event with higher amplitude centered over Canada.

November 2023 has produced a soaking wet climate across much of Europe. In the wet zone, rainfall amount has ranged from 3 to 23 in. during the past 30 days according to NOAA/CPC. The super upper trough causing the heavy rain reorientates shifting eastward this week and amplifying across Europe to bring early season cold in the 6-10-day period.

The ERCOT ice storm “Uri” occurred February 13-17, 2021, during a La Nina winter. During the past 30 years, coldest risk during winter in Dallas, TX strongly favors presence of La Nina. The bias appears in each month of meteorological winter.