Where Will the Russia Arctic Air Mass Go? Southward to China!

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Fig. 1: ECM ENS 1-5-day temperature anomaly forecast across Eurasia.  

Discussion: Stratospheric warming is compensated for a cooling troposphere across Eurasia. As a result, arctic air is emerging and expanding across all of Russia. In the 5-day temperature anomaly forecast for Eurasia, departures from normal range from -20F to -40F focused on western and central portions of Russia with coldest 2-meter temperatures near -50F in Central Russia (Fig. 1).  An arctic air mass this large will migrate. The most likely shift is southward emerging in the 6-10-day period as 0F dips into Northern Afghanistan and all of Tibet with the arctic front beginning to shift south late in the period in China (Fig. 2). In the 11-15-day period, the arctic air moderates south of snow cover but ensembles still indicate the 0F line could reach Beijing as China encounters a moderated arctic air mass (Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: ECM ENS 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast across Eurasia.  

 

Fig. 3: ECM ENS 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecast across Eurasia.