Velocity Potential November 2023 Vs. 2015 El Nino…The 2023 El Nino climate is weak!

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Charts of the day: Velocity Potential November 2023 Vs. 2015 El Nino…The 2023 El Nino climate is weak!

Discussion: The velocity potential anomaly represents zones of convection (thunderstorms and heavy rain – in blue) and regions of subsidence (sunny skies and dry). ENSO events have great influence on velocity potential. During November 2023, negative velocity potential was responsible for gully-washer rains over Northeast Africa and in the Central Pacific near the Dateline. Positive values associated with a dry climate stretched across the eastern tropical Indian ocean to Western Australia plus western South America. November 2015 was an El Nino month. Let’s do a comparison with the last well-fortified El Nino November (2015). Note that in 2015, El Nino produced a feast or famine convection/subsidence regime leading to a more forceful global El Nino climate. The NOV-23 velocity potential regime is weak for an El Nino and explains why the 7th strongest El Nino on record is occurring with a very weak El Nino climate.

Medium-range 6-10 Day Forecast Valid December 13-17, 2023 (24-hour change left)

Discussion: The latest macro-scale climate phenomenon forcing a mild North America climate is emergence of an eastward shifting Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) across the equatorial Pacific. Consequently, a warm Canadian climate which extends into the U.S. trend is milder.

Medium-range 11-15 Day Forecast Valid December 18-22, 2023 (24-hour change left)

Discussion: MJO influence increases and the already warm forecast across North America strengthens in the 11-15-day period.

U.S. Medium-range Precipitation Forecast

Discussion: ECM ENS is consistent featuring a low latitude storm track, typical of an EL Nino climate, in the 6-10-day period. ECM ENS continues to shift the storm track northward affecting the eastern half of the U.S. in the 11-15-day forecast. The wetter 11-15-day forecast is likely too wet.

Days 16-20 Extended range Temperature Forecast valid December 23-27, 2023 (previous below)

Discussion: The 16-20-day forecast stays very warm across Canada and the Northern U.S. trending toward normal in the Gulf States which is just north of the low latitude storm track.