At the surface, forecast models are very warm across the U.S. HOWEVER, trouble may be brewing in the upper atmosphere. The ECM ENS indicates a stratospheric warming event taking place over northwestern North America while GFS has this event with higher amplitude centered over Canada.

November 2023 has produced a soaking wet climate across much of Europe. In the wet zone, rainfall amount has ranged from 3 to 23 in. during the past 30 days according to NOAA/CPC. The super upper trough causing the heavy rain reorientates shifting eastward this week and amplifying across Europe to bring early season cold in the 6-10-day period.

The ERCOT ice storm “Uri” occurred February 13-17, 2021, during a La Nina winter. During the past 30 years, coldest risk during winter in Dallas, TX strongly favors presence of La Nina. The bias appears in each month of meteorological winter.

The GFS continues to trend colder in the medium range forecast for the U.S. valid the last third of November. The colder support from climate signals is becoming evident for central North America via negative phase of the West and East Pacific oscillations.