In Europe, the wet forecasts from late last week trend wetter. A vigorous upper trough west of Europe expands into Europe and is semi-permanent into early November causing widespread 2-5 in. of rain.

The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day (HDD) forecast through the first third of November projects much below normal heating demand for the current week shifting to near the 30-year normal for late October and early November.

Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino remains plentiful although weakening slightly in recent months and becoming choppy in character. Implied is that mature stage of El Nino may be just ahead.

Diverging upper air currents extending southward and into the tropics from an immense jet streak across the U.S. has increased upper shear dramatically and lowering risk of late season tropical systems. Sean was downgraded to a tropical disturbance due to this factor.