The erosion of the arctic air mass comes at a cost. A large ice storm in-place now in the Mid-South States extends to the Ohio Valley tonight. Ice accretion near or above 0.25 inches, which is enough to cause power outages, extends across AR/MO and near Chicago and eastward into tomorrow.

A stubborn upper-level low pressure area in Southeast Brazil persists the next 10 days and erodes in the 11-15-day period. A compensating subtropical ridge extends into Argentina through 10 days. The result is anomalous heat and dry climate across Argentina while heavy rains drop anchor on East Brazil. The week-3 ahead forecast indicates the pattern described is fading.

Despite the presence of arctic air across Eurasia during the first half of the winter season, most Central and South Europe cities observed a warm start to winter shifting colder in January. The chilly first half of January reverses warmer in the last third of the month forecast.

NOAA/CPC indicates an emerging and very intense convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) pushing across Maritime Continent over the next week or so and into the tropical West Pacific (phase_6) by January 23-24. During MJO P5 and P6 the mid-latitude Pacific jet stream strengthens and increases mild maritime influence on the North America and Europe climate.