The Community Earth System Model (CESM) projects developing La Nina for MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Other forecast models have similar projections with varying speed of (La Nina) development. Elsewhere, global SSTA forecast models maintain a warm signature particularly in the Indian Ocean where positive Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) ends and across both the North Pacific and North Atlantic as marine heat waves (MHW) expand.

The first half of December was very cold across the northern half of Europe and Western Russia while the Southern Black Sea region was mild. The pattern reverses much warmer the second half of December.

Daily reports of increasing delays and costs for barges moving all types of products through the Panama Canal continue to increase. A rapidly developing drought on Gatun Lake emerging this past February continuing through mid-2023 caused the drought.

Strong opposing cross-polar 10 MB height anomalies as forecast by GFS in 10 days are characteristic of strong +RI events. Based on the research, what can follow in 2-3 weeks is a shift in the troposphere of a mild 500 MB ridge pattern over North America (as forecast for the next 1-2 weeks) to shift northwestward forming a ridge bridge pattern over Alaska.