Argentina Dryness Becoming Severe

Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Plummeting
02/01/2024, 9:14 am EST
South America Drought is Worsening Especially in Argentina
02/05/2024, 5:56 am EST
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Fig. 1-4: The South America 7-day percent of normal rainfall, GFS and ECM combined to produce the 10-day and 11-15-day South America rainfall outlook, and GFS 15-day temperature anomaly forecast.

Discussion: Severe dryness and anomalous heat have shifted over Argentina the past 7-10 days. The 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations across South America reveal little or no rain across much of Argentina and Chile (Fig. 1). The Argentina dryness is accompanied by anomalous heat accelerating the drying of soil moisture conditions. The 10-day outlook, combining the GFS and ECM, maintain dryness in Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina (Fig. 2) with anomalous heat continuing. In the 11-15-day period, there is a risk of wetter weather developing (Fig. 3). However, the upper air forecast trend is less supportive of this wet weather. The GFS indicates anomalous heat across Argentina is likely to continue through the next 15 days (Fig. 4) continuing to accelerate drying soil conditions.