Extreme Rainfall Episode Northwest Gulf States Continues

Ice Storm Mid-south to Ohio Valley Today/Tomorrow
01/22/2024, 8:06 am EST
Super-Fast Jetstream Across Pacific Propelled by Madden Julian Oscillation
01/28/2024, 1:22 pm EST
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Fig. 1: Current NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: Flash Flood Warnings for life-threatening flooding is occurring across Interior East Texas and Southwest Louisiana (Fig. 1). Flooding is also present in many parts of East Texas to central Arkansas and across the western half of Louisiana. Dense fog persists throughout much of Texas, Great Plains, and Ohio Valley. Unfortunately, the heavy rain event is a slow mover. Additional extreme rain causing flash flooding is likely later today across Louisiana including Southeast Texas to the Southern Tennessee Valley (Fig. 2). The extreme rain and flash flood risk shifts to Mississippi/Alabama THU/FRI (Fig. 3-4). The NOAA/WPC precipitation amount for this event extends to 7-10 in. of additional rain in Louisiana (Fig. 5). The wet weather expands into the East through the remainder of the week with peak intensity on Saturday. Note the increasing deluge developing on the Coastal Northwest peaking this weekend.

The extreme precipitation events regenerate across California and Arizona by early February as an “atmospheric river” pattern continues to evolve (Fig. 6). Excessive precipitation extends across most of the West in early February and adding the Southeast States.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast continues to indicate very low heating demand heading into early February (Fig. 7). However, note the highly changeable GFS forecast which projects near normal HDD for Feb. 2-8 while all other models remain warm.

Fig. 2-5: ECM 1-7-day precipitation amount forecast across the East U.S. and 1-10-day forecast for the West U.S.

Fig. 6: NOAA/CPC issues an alert for extreme precipitation centered on California and Arizona January 31-February 4.

Fig. 7: The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparing with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal.