News
12/26/2023, 8:15 am EST

Active Madden Julian Oscillation Combined with Warming Stratosphere Creates Low Risk “Polar Vortex” Threat January 4th

In summary, the combination of an eastward shifting MJO across the tropical Atlantic and stratospheric warming over Siberia to northwest North America increases the risk of a brief sneaky cold pattern in North America. Forecast models indicate a low risk but close monitoring for significant changes of the forecast in early January is warranted. Through 10 days, AI models do not see the cold air risk for the U.S.
12/22/2023, 1:05 pm EST

Stratospheric Warming Emerges In Early January!

Natural gas markets are concerned regarding the mid-winter El Nino analogs which end the early winter warmth and introduce colder/snowy weather for January increasing heating demand. An added concern is the emergence in the past 2 days of stratospheric warming forecasts in 12-16 days across North/Northeast Asia to the polar region.
12/20/2023, 12:38 pm EST

Graph Cast AI Identifies High Wind Events for Western Europe

Hurricane force wind gusts are projected across U.K. to Germany tomorrow due to a potent storm (960 MB) across southwest Scandinavia. By contrast, the high wind (60-80 mph) event in the Northeast U.S. earlier this week, was associated with a 980 MB low pressure system.
12/18/2023, 7:33 pm EST

Models Starting to Show La Nina 2024 Developing  

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) projects developing La Nina for MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Other forecast models have similar projections with varying speed of (La Nina) development. Elsewhere, global SSTA forecast models maintain a warm signature particularly in the Indian Ocean where positive Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) ends and across both the North Pacific and North Atlantic as marine heat waves (MHW) expand.