The ERCOT ice storm “Uri” occurred February 13-17, 2021, during a La Nina winter. During the past 30 years, coldest risk during winter in Dallas, TX strongly favors presence of La Nina. The bias appears in each month of meteorological winter.

The GFS continues to trend colder in the medium range forecast for the U.S. valid the last third of November. The colder support from climate signals is becoming evident for central North America via negative phase of the West and East Pacific oscillations.

Late season subtropical/tropical trouble is brewing in the North Atlantic basin. A subtropical storm is possible east-northeast of Florida late this week while a full-blown tropical cyclone emerges in the Caribbean Sea.

The subtropical ridge over Southeast Brazil edges eastward in the 6-10-day period which allows a moisture feed from the deep tropics into central continent and a wetter forecast change.