The 12Z GFS projects a cold medium-range forecast that is stronger and longer than the FEB-21 “Uri” event. Support for the cold is singularly generated by the GFS model. The 6-10-day forecast frigid forecast trends much colder into Texas. The 11-15-day forecast is expected to moderate due to mild Pacific influence. However, the GFS doubts that possibility and generates a much colder 11-15-day forecast at midday. The 12Z GFS generates a whopping 281.5 HDD for Jan. 19-25 which is about 10 HDD colder than the “Uri” event Feb. 12-18, 2021.

ECM roars the arctic air into the Gulf region next TUE and WED morning. The trend is colder and additional chill is possible due to proximity of snow cover preventing the arctic air from moderating upon approach to the Gulf of Mexico. Note the well below zero values into Arkansas Tuesday morning.

Incoming arctic chill to the U.S. for the middle third of January while the deep freeze is already across Europe likely enhanced by expanding snow cover the next 2 weeks. A wetter pattern change for Brazil in early January reverses drier (again) in the medium-range.

January 2024 looks like a snowy and cold month across the U.S. However, December 2023 produced the second lowest North America snow cover in the 1966-2023 climatology. The least snowy December was in 1980 which was a brutally cold month across Canada and the Northeast U.S. but moisture starved limiting snowfall.