Dynamic meteorological models generally have increased error during the cold-to-warm transition season. The 30-day skill scores of leading models are generally consistent with long-term averages for this time of year. However, the short-term (7-day) forecast skill has recently lowered.

Yesterday’s NOAA/USDA drought analysis across Kansas reveals worsening conditions. Although harsh extreme to exceptional drought is not present, almost all of Kansas (97.9%) is abnormally dry to severe drought. Drought worsening is most apparent in the 3-month change which reveals an increase of 38% to 65% of D1 drought conditions and 5.5% to 17% of D2 (severe drought) conditions.

Persistent cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation causes return visits of an upper trough into the West U.S. and that pattern redevelops to close April. A moist southerly flow develops over the Great Plains ahead of the trough and causes heavy to excessive rain in the Great Plains heading into early Maine.