News
04/28/2024, 11:59 am EDT

New Transitional U.S. Thermal Pattern Lowers Forecast Skill

Dynamic meteorological models generally have increased error during the cold-to-warm transition season. The 30-day skill scores of leading models are generally consistent with long-term averages for this time of year. However, the short-term (7-day) forecast skill has recently lowered.
04/26/2024, 3:44 am EDT

Kansas Drought Worsening; Incoming Rains Miss Southwestern Kansas

Yesterday’s NOAA/USDA drought analysis across Kansas reveals worsening conditions. Although harsh extreme to exceptional drought is not present, almost all of Kansas (97.9%) is abnormally dry to severe drought. Drought worsening is most apparent in the 3-month change which reveals an increase of 38% to 65% of D1 drought conditions and 5.5% to 17% of D2 (severe drought) conditions.
04/23/2024, 7:58 am EDT

Prohibitive Wet Weather Ahead for Central U.S.

Persistent cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation causes return visits of an upper trough into the West U.S. and that pattern redevelops to close April. A moist southerly flow develops over the Great Plains ahead of the trough and causes heavy to excessive rain in the Great Plains heading into early Maine.
04/22/2024, 1:37 pm EDT

12Z GFS Cold Bias Polar Region; Warm Bias Near U.S./Canada Border Past 30 Days

The midday 12Z GFS temperature bias for the 6-10-day period during the past 30 days is marginally warm in Southern Canada and the North-central U.S. but overall reasonable skill. In the 11-15-day period, the polar region is much too cool while forecast bias near the U.S./Canada border has averaged too warm.