As many as 3 tropical cyclones are forecast to affect the northwest, north, and east coastlines in the latest 10-day rainfall outlook for Australia according to ECMWF. The core of the heavy rain (and extended range) is across Queensland.

By mid-next week, heavy rain and possible severe weather will develop across Texas to Missouri. Once the Texas to Missouri rainfall is established middle of next week, MJO influence maintains the heavy rain pattern throughout the 8-14-day period. Included with that rainfall are additional severe storms.

Positive phase of the Scandinavia index (SCAND) supports anomalous warmth and dryness across much of Europe through the next week. SCAND shifts to negative phase during the medium range which suggests a cooler and potentially wetter regime. The 15-day population weight Europe temperature forecast identifies the warmth through 10 days shifting cooler in the extended range.

As of mid-February, 73.7% of the U.S. is in a dry-to-drought condition up from 66.2% in mid-December according to NOAA. Harsh D2-D4 drought is observed in 22.6% of the U.S., an increase of almost 10% during the past 2 months. The equatorial East Pacific subsurface is warming dramatically encouraging El Nino ahead! Two La Nina to El Nino first half of year analogs are 1997 and 2023 which featured dryness Iowa JUN-SEP having U.S. Corn Belt implications.