The 12Z GFS maintains an over-the-weekend cold risk into Southeast Brazil on TUE/WED morning. The cold risk reaches the southern Brazil coffee-growing areas each morning. Some damage is possible given the GFS outlook.

Erick intensified rapidly to a category-4 major hurricane overnight approaching the south coast of Mexico. A leading contributor to the rapid intensification was the available upper ocean heat which increased dramatically on approach to the coast as indicated by the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) to 86-87F.

To illustrate the eagerness of GFS to forecast low pressure and increased tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf of Mexico was apparent earlier this month with low pressure risk appearing in the 8-14/11-15-day period. By comparison, ECM offered no threatening low pressure for the entire 15-day forecast during the first 10 days of June. Today’s forecast by GFS indicates low pressure in the 10-12-day period while ECM maintains all clear.

Climate Impact Company often mentions optimum climate normal (OCN) which identifies 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year climatology due to the vast differences in these shorter-term historical weather records with standard 30-year climatology. During 2016-24, the North Atlantic basin has shifted into a consistently more active than normal tropical cyclone pattern which represents an OCN.