Four forecast models are considered to offer a broad view of forecast skill during the past 60 days for the northern hemisphere, North America, and Europe. The four processed considered are two physics-based models: ECM ENS and GFS plus two AI models: AI Graph Cast ECM ENS and AIFS. ECM ENS is selected due to the consistent highest skill score while GFS is reviewed due to high visibility.

During recent weeks, the convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) settled in the eastern equatorial Pacific to the longitudes of the Americas. Consequently, trade winds have eased across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean preventing the upwelling of cooler waters to sustain La Nina. The Nino SSTA regions have warmed significantly.

In Australia, the past week was mostly drier and cooler than normal. Re-emerging heat and dryness will affect the entire continent this week. However, during the medium range Eastern Australia turns very wet. Potential for impacts from a tropical cyclone are apparent for early next week while much of the North turns generally eater than normal in the 8-14/11-15-day period.

NOAA updates their monthly probabilistic climate forecasts. Highlighted is a wet March (and spring) across the Ohio Valley and vicinity where additional high impact weather events are likely. A dry spring is ahead for the Southwest U.S. while the Northwest shifts wetter.