At 8AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa was located about 55 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica with central pressure 901 MB and top wind 175 mph while moving north-northeast at 7 mph. HWRF/HMON hurricane forecast models lower surface pressure to around 890 MB today forcing maximum wind to around 190 mph.

Major Hurricane Melissa slowly approaches Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours while intensifying to a category-5 major hurricane. Melissa moves northeastward as a major hurricane across Southern Cuba into midweek with the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in the dangerous right front quadrant of the hurricane. The NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast indicates widespread 10-30-inch amounts with high spots near 40 inches causing widespread flash flooding and numerous mudslides in parts of Hispaniola, all of Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba.

NOAA/CPC projects risk of significant storms in the Northeast and Northwest U.S. valid in the late October/early November timeframe. Heavy precipitation and high wind risk are featured.

The upper air forecast for week-4 is highly variable ranging from an amplified (warm) Central U.S. high pressure ridge according to CFS V2 to a deep cool upper trough centered on New York based on the 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS, or somewhat of a compromise by ECMWF. MJO projections for mid-November are in phase_6 (near the Dateline) which favors a warm solution for the U.S. ECM is the chosen model with CFS V2 the caveat forecast while leaning away from the cooler East AI scenarios.