The North Atlantic basin remains warmer than normal but not as warm as one year ago. The main development region (MDR) has cooled to near normal. A marine heatwave in the subtropical North Atlantic remains but has weakened while very warm SSTA continue in the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

The Modoki index continues to strengthen as La Nina characteristics persist near the Dateline while warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific is dramatic. Currently, one of the strongest La Nina Modoki episodes on record is strengthening.

The latest NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas reveal a large area of high wind across the Great Plains extending to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley. Risk of tornadoes extends from Missouri/Illinois to Mississippi for later today and tonight.

Rainfall amount from former Category-4 Major Hurricane Alfred was widespread >25 inches from far southeast Queensland to coastal northeast New South Wales last week with high spots near 44 inches. The latest forecast indicates a favorable Madden Julian oscillation to cause more widespread rains the second half of March!