Dramatic warming in the Atlantic Ocean in the eastern equatorial region has been dramatic. The warming is not expanding west and northwest as forecast models have forecast, at least not yet.

The catalyst to all of the extreme weather in the U.S. during early summer including historic rains in the northwest Gulf States, a strong Southwest Monsoon and anomalous heat over the Northwest has been, in-part a super intense Bermuda high-pressure system (Fig. 1). So far in July, the Bermuda high-pressure system has averaged an astounding 4-6 MB stronger than normal. SLP has routinely been in the 1030 MB range which is unusually high for summertime.

Another upper-level storm shifting east across Europe brought flash flooding to Germany which caused at least 19 deaths according to Reuters New Service. The event shifts to Southeast Europe where additional flooding rainfall is expected the next couple days.

Given the new source region for extreme heat...the D3/D4 drought area across the Canadian Prairies and North-central U.S., anomalous heat can easily shift eastward reaching Minnesota in 10 days.