The updated NCEP CFS V2 indicates La Nina continues with moderate intensity through April and intensifies to a “strong” La Nina the second half of the year. The NCEP CFS V2 forecast is in opposition to most other forecast models which favor weakening La Nina in 2021.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a cold spike striking the Northeast U.S. Thursday night/Friday morning and lasting through next weekend. The peak of cold is Friday morning through Saturday morning when very cold temperatures are accompanied by high wind producing extreme wind chill.

Today’s afternoon “European Model” indicated an evolving storm late Sunday night/early Monday centered on Missouri shifting toward West Virginia Monday evening and offshore the northern Mid-Atlantic States Tuesday morning. A wide range of weather is produced by this storm.

Rather than using any single model the mega-cluster ensemble which accounts for all models projects "most likely" scenarios which are more reliable. The most recent mega-cluster ensemble projection of temperature anomalies for the northern hemisphere in the extended-range (days 11-15) indicates steady presence of the winter 2020-21 arctic air reservoir stretched across Russia.