The MJO has been mostly dormant in the vicinity of Indonesia or westward since October. However, a slow eastward shift with intensification is underway the past 1-2 weeks. MJO has shifted toward the Pacific Dateline and a further eastward drift is indicated through the middle third of December. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial West Pacific is responding as warmth increases and shifts to the Dateline.

A strong cold front brings widespread high wind from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today while a series of winter storms are ahead in the West, most focused on California.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast by all models through Dec. 17-23 is ridiculously warm. The trend since Monday is somewhat warmer. Climate Impact Company projects the second warmest December this century.

The November gas population weight HDD was 552 compared to the 30-year normal of 589. The rank was 11th warmest of the past 20 years compared to the second warmest on record last year. The updated HDD ranking forecast for the remainder of winter is trending warmer and now ranks in the too 7 warmest for the past 20 years each of the next 4 months.