Highlight: Impactful Northeast U.S. Storm Friday and bitter cold next MON/TUE!
Fig. 1-2: GFS snowfall forecast THU/FRI Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast U.S.
Table 1: MAX/MIN forecasts for bitter cold potential next week.
Discussion: Forecast confidence is increasing in regard to another significant snow in the Mid-Atlantic region plus south/southeast New England THU/FRI. Snowfall amounts (by the GFS) are in the 4-8 in. range across the central Appalachians and northeast Virginia to southern New Jersey (Fig. 1). Given snow on the ground in (or near) the affected area, the snowfall forecast verification risk increases.
The storm intensifies east of New England Friday and drives a 5-15 in. snowstorm, most over the Cape and the Island (Fig. 2). Once again, coastal flooding in the Northeast is likely. Heavy/blowing and drifting of snow is possible in southeast New England.
Following the storm an arctic air mass migrates across Quebec and the southern extend will pulse into New York/New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic States Monday night and not erode until later Wednesday. High temperatures on Tuesday are in the teens with wind chill below zero in the NYC area and northward. A lot of below zero readings for Wednesday morning while large cities and in the 10-14F range.