In the outer tropical North Atlantic basin a tropical disturbance (94L) is drifting due west with some organization. SST are sufficiently warm in this low latitude to sustain 94L and the shear axis is well to the north and showing signs of weakening.

The latest monthly U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast shifts cooler than the 2019-21 normal as the outlooks are hot in the Central U.S. including Texas but trend less hot/cooler on each (high population) coastal region(s).

Soil moisture deficits increase dramatically once meteorological summer arrives due to the intensity of the sun. Only areas receiving moderate to heavy rainfall, cloud cover or cool temperatures can avoid this problem. Right now, significant soil moisture shortages are affecting a vast portion of the lower 48 contiguous states. Most notably, >15 in. rainfall deficits are affecting parched northern California, parts of the Northwest U.S. and adding the upper Texas Coast.

In the 6-10-day period valid for next week over half of the U.S. is at risk of >100F maximum temperature. The focus remains on Texas, the Mid-south and Southeast U.S. California to Arizona is added!