Rapid Stream Flows Ohio and Mississippi Valley

Fig. 1: Latest NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: High impact weather continues across the Mid-south U.S. including Texas and the Ohio Valley (Fig. 1). Widespread flooding is occurring across the southern Ohio Valley including Kentucky. River flooding extends from the Ohio River to the Mississippi River and includes all surrounding rivers and tributaries. Following the heavy rain of early April, a widespread freeze arrives Tuesday morning. The core of the heavy rain, featuring up to 15 inches across central and northeast Arkansas (Fig. 2) has abated. However, the attendant flooding and rapid stream flows (Fig. 3-4) will continue. Fortunately, a dry period is ahead for the flood zone.

During the past week, significant rain has shifted across the Black Sea region (Fig. 5). Western Europe has shifted very dry. In South America, the attachment of the warm Nino12 SSTA region off the northwest coast of South America continues to support a wet bias to western South America compensated for by dryness in East Brazil (Fig. 6)

The Europe outlook features additional significant precipitation in the Black Sea region during the next several days (Fig. 7) followed by cold temperatures ranging from -2C to -5C at night and centered on Eastern Europe this week (Fig. 8). Waves of rain in the pattern for Europe, across Southwest Europe in the 6-10-day period (Fig. 9) shifting inland after 10 days (Fig. 10).

In South America, the 15-day outlook indicates a wet bias across Brazil (Fig. 11).

Fig. 2-4: The 7-day precipitation anomaly observations across the U.S., streamflow analysis, and streamflow key.

Fig. 5-6: The percent normal precipitation across Europe and South America during the past 7 days.

Fig. 7-10: The ECM 15-day percent of normal precipitation across Europe and Western Russia plus the 5-day temperature anomaly outlook.

Fig. 11: The GFS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast across South America.