Rapid Drought Development Warning Issued for Mid-south, Southern Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic

Fig. 1: NOAA/CPC issues an excessive heat/rapid onset of drought alert.

Discussion: As stated on several occasions via soil moisture observations and trend and yesterday’s 2-5-week outlook, conditions for developing and expanding drought in the U.S. are favorable. NOAA/CPC identified specific regions in an alert issued late yesterday. They are eastern Oklahoma, the southern Missouri Valley, southern Ohio Valley to the western Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region (Fig. 1). The drought develops quickly motivated by lack of rain and especially anomalous heat which peaks during the week of July 4^th.

NOAA/CPC: Dry soils, stressed vegetation, and reduced water availability due to low stream flows and groundwater may lead to increased impacts to agriculture and livestock, as well as increased fire danger. Several locations are already experiencing impacts.

Climate Impact Company: Large areas of soil moisture deficit developing during the peak of summer heat can develop a feedback loop to the atmosphere increasing strength of high pressure which in-turn causes drought to worsen. Monitoring for this potential scenario is warranted in areas identified by NOAA. The hot and dry climate causing the drought development could change once hurricane season (climate) is well-established 2 months from now.