North Atlantic Warm Hole Re-Emerging

Charts of the day: Re-emerging NAWH to affect Europe climate.

Discussion: The daily North Atlantic SSTA analysis reveals presence of the persistent warm pattern surrounding Europe associated with the Europe heatwave of the 2022 warm season. Waters off the Canadian Maritimes are also very warm attributed to the Gulf Stream and lack of a Labrador Current. However, rapid changes have developed. During the past 2-4 weeks waters south and southeast of Greenland have cooled by 2-5C. Return of the semi-permanent (2013-2022) North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is generating. The cooler SSTA change foreshadows an evolving potent upper-level low-pressure trough south of Greenland for the first half of November. To compensate, on average Western Europe maintains an upper-level high-pressure ridge. Upstream, the south of Greenland trough causes the eastern North America upper-level ridge to amplify. It’s all connected (to the NAWH)!

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid November 7-13, 2022: NAWH-inspired warm pattern.

Discussion: On average, next week stays very warm across Europe and into Northwest Russia. Atlantic moisture brings wet weather across the northern half of Europe while southern areas stay dry.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid November 14-20, 2022): Warm pattern remains; North Africa rains developing.

Discussion: The anomalous warmth is likely to linger during mid-November across Europe and Western Russia. The warmest anomalies are across Western Russia. A wet pattern is developing across Northwest and North Africa although Southern Europe remains mostly dry.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid November 21-27, 2022: Southern Europe cools to near normal, may turn wet.

Discussion: Southern Europe may begin to turn wetter. The southern half of Europe is cooler and trends toward normal. Northwest Eurasia stays mild due to the influence of mild marine air.