HMNI/HWFI Models Forecast Track and Intensity of Gulf Hurricane
09/23/2022, 10:56 am EDTWarmer Oceans Increasing Risk of Stronger Hurricanes
09/28/2022, 3:42 pm EDT
Fig. 1: Latest forecast track of Typhoon Noru issued by T.S.R./UK.
Discussion: According to Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. Typhoon Noru will intensify to a category-3 major typhoon today and move due west to the Central Vietnam Coast in 36 hours (Fig. 1). This system will track well inland while slowly weakening. Immense rainfall amount occurs with 1-2 feet possible along the westward path shifting inland (Fig. 2). Another tropical cyclone is forecast by GFS for this weekend possibly striking North Vietnam with more excessive rainfall. (Fig. 3).
Fig. 2: GFS ENS percent of normal rainfall forecast across the South China Sea and vicinity.
Fig. 3: The GFS OP indicates risk of another tropical cyclone this weekend approaching North Vietnam.