Natural Gas Prices and U.S. Thermal Pattern for winter 2024-25 So Far

Fig. 1: Natural gas prices ahead of and through meteorological winter so far. Data: Investing.Com; Analysis: Climate Impact Company.

Discussion: Natural gas price analysis for winter 2024-25 so far identifies the influence of weather. Prior to meteorological winter, natural gas prices were steady in the $3.20-$3.40 range sharply dropping mid-December after the record warm start to the winter season. DEC-24 ended 4^th warmest on record. However, the East, where demand is highest, turned colder later in December and prices responded by rising to near the $3.85 mark. The Holiday Season was mild for most of the U.S. and natural gas prices eased back below the $3.50 range. However, signs of colder air ahead appeared in medium-range forecasts as the middle third of January approached causing prices to rise toward the $4.00 mark. Mid-January brought prospects of a polar vortex episode which (also) became Winter Storm “Enzo”. The cold event caused a price spike to near $4.25. Another cold wave into the East during later January caused a second price spike, to $4.03. Cold air lingered across Northern States into early February while the southern 2/3 of the U.S. were vigorously warm and prices eased back to near the pre-winter low mark. Colder air returns next week, and forecasts for next week’s event have caused a steady increase in price during the past 7-10 days to today’s (new) peak near $3.73.  

Fig. 2: NOAA weekly HDD observations for meteorological winter so far plus CIC projections for the next 3 weeks compared with the 30-year normal.