The Ongoing Heavy Snow and Ice Storm for Central and East U.S.

Fig. 1: The latest NOAA/NWS weather watch, warning, and advisory areas.

Discussion: No shortage of hazardous weather this afternoon. A large blizzard is ongoing in Kansas and likely to spread east into the Southern Ohio Valley tonight where Winter Storm Warning’s for heavy snow are in effect (Fig. 1). The Winter Storm Warning’s extend to the Mid-Atlantic region. Meanwhile, severe weather has developed across East Texas and Louisiana where a Tornado Watch is in-place. Large changes are ahead, a Freeze Warning is posted for tonight on the Upper Texas Coast and southwestern Louisiana Coast. High wind is ongoing in Southern California while Winter Weather Advisories are located across parts of the Northwest States. Heavy lake-effect snow is occurring in Western New York.

At midday, the 12Z GFS projects the core of additional heavy snow across the Ohio River region extending into central Virginia (Fig. 2). An ice storm will extend from southeastern Missouri to Kentucky overnight (Fig. 3). Later this week, both GFS and ECM indicate another snowfall event shifting farther south although details are low confidence (Fig. 4-5).

The 12Z GFS stays cold in the East in the latest 6-10-day forecast (Fig. 6). Support for the cold continuing in the 11-15-day period is increasing (Fig. 7). The latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast through the week of January 17-23 indicates high heating demand through mid-month followed by easing to normal (Fig. 8). The CFS V2/ECM week 3-5 HDD forecast maintains normal cold through late January followed by a February warm-up (Fig. 9).

Fig. 2-3: The 12Z GFS additional snow and ice forecast amounts for the ongoing East U.S. storm.

Fig. 4-5: The 12Z GFS and ECM late week/weekend snowfall potential forecast.

Fig. 6-7: The 12Z GFS medium range temperature anomaly forecast.

Fig. 8-9: U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast utilizing all models, their consensus, and comparison with 24 hours ago and the 10-year/30-year normal plus the CFS V2/ECM week 3-5 HDD outlook.