Late Season Surge of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Table 1: The North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity so far compared to normal and the NOAA seasonal forecast.

Fig. 1: The North Atlantic basin weather satellite view.

Discussion: After Rafael, North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity is firmly in the above normal category and within the range of buoyant seasonal activity forecast by NOAA/NHC (Table 1). Rafael dissipated over the weekend in the central Gulf of Mexico due to dry air entrainment. An ALERT is posted for the Caribbean Sea for tropical cyclone development by this upcoming weekend (Fig. 1). In the Northwest Pacific, seasonal activity is slightly below normal so far (Table 2). However, the satellite view reveals 4 separate systems in-place now and each is drifting westward (Fig. 2).

Table 2: The North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity so far compared to normal and the NOAA seasonal forecast.

Fig. 2: The West Pacific basin weather satellite view.