The U.S. AUG-24 and JUN/JUL/AUG-24 Verification

Highlight: Updated tropical cyclone model tracks push Francine farther east.

Fig. 1-2: Latest tropical cyclone model tracks and intensity forecast for Francine.

Discussion: Absolutely amazing, the record dryness in Alabama and Mississippi observed during August 2024 considering the 12-hurricane seasonal forecast for 2024. In fact, the entire west/northwest Gulf was extremely dry during the final month of meteorological summer adding Tennessee (2^nd driest on record) and much of the Ohio Valley. The wet states during August were South Carolina and the Interior Northeast region. Overall, the U.S. ranked 41^st driest in the 130-year climatology. August produced strong heat across the southern tier where all states finished in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. Florida was 2^nd hottest on record while Texas and New Mexico were 3^rd hottest on record. The Great Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic States were near normal. Overall, the U.S. was 15^th hottest in the 130-year climatology.

Meteorological summer 2024 was the 4^th hottest on record. Last year was the 15^th hottest on record while 2022 was the 4^th hottest on record at that time. Summer 2021 was the hottest on record. Summer 2024 set records for heat 5 states including California and Arizona, Florida, plus New Hampshire and Maine. 23 states finished in the MUCH ABOVE normal range. Only the Midwest was near normal. Summer 2024 was wet in the Great Lakes region to New York where MUCH ABOVE normal rainfall was observed. Conversely, nearby Ohio and West Virginia observed top-10 dry summer seasons adding Tennessee. The remainder of the nation was reasonably close to normal. The U.S. was 58^th driest of the 130-year climatology.

The meteorological summer 2024 forecasts from Climate Impact Company and NOAA are provided for comparison purposes with the observed climate.

Fig. 3-4: The summer 2024 U.S. state rankings for temperature and precipitation based on 130 years of climatology.

Fig. 5-6: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature/precipitation anomaly forecast for the U.S. for JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.

Fig. 7-8: The NOAA Climate Prediction Center probabilistic temperature/precipitation forecast for the U.S. for JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.