The warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation coupled with a constricting polar ice cap have caused a dramatic warm-up of mid-latitude to tropical ocean temperatures providing increased upper ocean heat igniting stronger hurricanes.

Typhoon Noru will continue to strengthen over the South China Sea today and move into Central Vietnam in about 36 hours bringing 1-2 feet of rain. Another tropical cyclone may follow this weekend for North Vietnam.

The Climate Impact Company concern regarding the forecast track of Tropical Depression 9, which is certain to become a Gulf hurricane by early next week, is the more prominent hurricane forecast model HMNI and HWFI forecast track and intensities in the latest 5-day outlook.

Motivating a third year of La Nina is the enhancing warm effects on the western equatorial Pacific Ocean of the evolving negative Indian Ocean Dipole. The -IOD pattern fades fast early next year. What follows is an equally rapid weakening of La Nina. The catalyst to sustain La Nina is gone and consequently the natural compensating ENSO reply to 3 years of La Nina is EL Nino later in 2023.