Widespread excessive rainfall was observed across much of Eastern Australia during October 2022 and more rain is on the way although less excessive for the next 2 weeks as an upper low-pressure pattern over the continent is sustained.

An evolving tropical or subtropical system in the Bahamas is likely to form early next week. This system inspires a long duration wind and rain fetch into the Carolina Coast for early-to-middle of next week.

Madden Julian oscillation is shifting east from the West Pacific now across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks. Initially, MJO drives a stormy West and very warm East U.S. pattern. However, in the extended-range, the chilly weather spreads across much of the U.S.

The upper trough for 2022-23 is likely a little closer to major crop areas in Brazil than last year and soils are wet across southwest and interior southeast Brazil. Consequently, a major drought affecting central and northern major crop areas in Brazil is unlikely for upcoming summer. However, drought risk to the south of this zone increases dramatically.