Tropical Disturbance 97L has formed in the outer tropical North Atlantic basin. 97L has gained clarity today and may be a little farther west than indicated by NOAA/NHC. The preliminary 5-day forecast by Climate Impact Company (CIC) indicates west to west-northwest travel almost to the far northeast Caribbean Sea and likelihood of intensification to a tropical storm.

A tropical disturbance is forming in the eastern North Atlantic tropics. This system is likely to drift westward and approach the far northeast Caribbean Sea in 5 days. This system should strengthen moving into the central North Atlantic tropics.

ECMWF upper air forecasts for North America and Europe through February with annotated sensible weather interpretations identify ECMWF opinion of the climate pattern through meteorological winter 2022-23.

Not convenient is the developing hot/dry bias by the GFS (and all models are showing this problem) during the past 2+ weeks for the Central/Midwest U.S. Maximum temperatures are hot at times but nowhere near 2-meter forecasts offered primarily by the GFS.