It’s still early, the most active part of tropical cyclone season is a few days away (Aug. 1st), but today’s analysis is reminiscent of past El Nino years in the modern climate (since the mid-to-late 1990’s) when tropical activity was biased to the East Coast or outer Atlantic especially during stronger El Nino.

Pattern change brings copious rainfall to Europe over the next 15 days with 3-5 in. indicated by ECM ENS across the South-central Mountains and parts of Eastern Europe. Of course, the wet weather is accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures. Southeast Europe misses the rain and cooler regime.

On occasion, the GFS and ECM develop a tropical wave within the outer North Atlantic active ITCZ and carry that event west-northwest with development possible by late this week. GFS has produced two model runs that develop this system into a hurricane reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast in 13 days.

In Australia, the soil moisture conditions are turning drier on the East Coast and much of Western Australia. The latest 15-day outlooks indicate a changeable thermal pattern through 10 days but averaging mostly warmer than normal in the extended-range.