An updated climatology for North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) phase plus a review of long-term cycles of ENSO, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO), and tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index.

Agreement is not perfect, but Madden Julian oscillation may erupt again in the equatorial Pacific in 10+ days igniting a subtropical moisture flow into the southern U.S. causing some much-needed rainfall across Texas.

Taking a look at the Climate Impact Company summer 2022-23 climate forecast versus verification yielded mostly effective results.

Dramatic warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is a leading indicator of warm ENSO ahead! So far in March, the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface has warmed dramatically thanks to passage of the Madden Julian oscillation.