Regions of anomalous SSTA regimes in the North Atlantic basin are dramatic! The NAWH pattern east of New England biases the East U.S. cooler. A new MHW off the northwest coast of Africa has lead to Northwest Africa/Southwest Europe drought. A warm SSTA pattern in the deep tropics ahead of tropical cyclone season.

The long-standing 2020-23 La Nina climate pattern is fading. The southern oscillation index has steadily shifted into the El Nino-like negative phase during May and whopping daily values of -6 the past couple days.

All the ingredients are there, transient intense Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) to shut down trade winds, steady and intensifying negative southern oscillation index (SOI) to produce an El Nino climate, and exceptionally warm subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific to fuel a developing warm ENSO.

The MAY-SEP 2023 U.S. population weight CDD forecast is adjusted. The outlook trends slightly warmer. Note that the outlook is consistently warmer than the 30-year climatology but not as hot as the majority of the last 3 years through July followed by AUG/SEP forecasts which are similar.