Yesterday’s NOAA/USDA drought analysis across Kansas reveals worsening conditions. Although harsh extreme to exceptional drought is not present, almost all of Kansas (97.9%) is abnormally dry to severe drought. Drought worsening is most apparent in the 3-month change which reveals an increase of 38% to 65% of D1 drought conditions and 5.5% to 17% of D2 (severe drought) conditions.

Persistent cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation causes return visits of an upper trough into the West U.S. and that pattern redevelops to close April. A moist southerly flow develops over the Great Plains ahead of the trough and causes heavy to excessive rain in the Great Plains heading into early Maine.

The midday 12Z GFS temperature bias for the 6-10-day period during the past 30 days is marginally warm in Southern Canada and the North-central U.S. but overall reasonable skill. In the 11-15-day period, the polar region is much too cool while forecast bias near the U.S./Canada border has averaged too warm.

Meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) 2024 remains forecast warmer than normal for all but North Dakota with highest hot weather probability likely from the Interior Northwest to Western Texas and in New England. The precipitation outlook is biased wet in the East and Southeast U.S. while West-central States including the western Great Plains are drier than normal.