An upper trough emerged across the very warm SSTA pattern west of Europe and the rapid cooling of the ocean surface caused latent heat loss that amplified the upper trough to soak and cool much of Europe in late July while a compensating downstream upper ridge strengthened, entrained North Africa heat, and caused harsh hot and dry weather for South/Southeast Europe.

It’s still early, the most active part of tropical cyclone season is a few days away (Aug. 1st), but today’s analysis is reminiscent of past El Nino years in the modern climate (since the mid-to-late 1990’s) when tropical activity was biased to the East Coast or outer Atlantic especially during stronger El Nino.

Pattern change brings copious rainfall to Europe over the next 15 days with 3-5 in. indicated by ECM ENS across the South-central Mountains and parts of Eastern Europe. Of course, the wet weather is accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures. Southeast Europe misses the rain and cooler regime.

On occasion, the GFS and ECM develop a tropical wave within the outer North Atlantic active ITCZ and carry that event west-northwest with development possible by late this week. GFS has produced two model runs that develop this system into a hurricane reaching the Mid-Atlantic Coast in 13 days.