The midpoint of the 2023 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season has passed after 15 tropical storms (8.5 is normal), 5 hurricanes (3.5 is normal), and 3 major hurricanes (1.5 is normal). The ACE index is 86.4 (62.4 is normal). On average, the seasonal tropical cyclone seasonal forecasts for 2023 were up to 21 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. Given the pace we're on, the upper limit of seasonal forecast is certainly possible.

Tropical Disturbance 97L formed earlier today and is forecast by tropical cyclone models to become a tropical storm by WED/THU in the central tropical North Atlantic. This system is likely to follow a similar path as Lee and intensify into a hurricane in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, there is risk to the East Coast of a hurricane although risk is low for the Gulf of Mexico.

Lee is a still intensifying category-5 major hurricane. The west-northwest movement at 14 mph is expected to slow down over the weekend as the "Bermuda High" to the north providing steering currents for Lee weakens. As Lee slows down, the major hurricane expands. Forecast models continue to indicate a northward turn prior to crossing 70W longitude which lowers U.S. East Coast implications. Note that the waters are cooler than normal east of the Gulf Stream which may cause Lee to weaken while turning northward.

In the Climate Impact Company early report, identified is another excessive rainfall/flood risk episode through the weekend for the Northeast U.S. Corridor away from the coast. A stalled cold front triggers frequent gully-washer thundershowers leading to flooding in many locations already receiving record rainfall during summer 2023.