During the week of Sep. 19-25, the verified temperature anomalies across Paraguay averaged an impressive +7C while interior Southeast Brazil was +4C to +7C. However, outside of this very hot region, the temperature anomalies for the week were not nearly as hot. Recent 1-5-day and 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecasts by GFS are much too warm incorrectly indicating too much anomalous heat.

The 2023 season so far is more active than normal with 17 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The amount of activity so far and outlook for the remainder of the season implies the consensus seasonal forecasts will be accurate.

Certainly, a cooler pattern change can emerge at any time. However, the process of generating cooler pattern change is made more difficult by the much warmer than normal mid-latitude ocean surface.

During September 2023 the jet stream axis across Argentina has averaged 25-45 mph stronger than normal. The 15-day forecast maintains the rapid jet stream forecasting 100-160 knots across Argentina. Meanwhile, just the opposite pattern counters that fast upper flow with titanic high pressure featuring much lighter than normal wind across Brazil.