August 2023 was very dry across the southwest and southeast/east continent with only parts of interior Western Australia wetter than normal. The dry bias to Australia climate caused by El Nino and positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) has emerged.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast identifies a steadily increasing cooling demand through early September. All models are in agreement on a potential record warm week of September 8-14.

The U.S. shifts into an extraordinarily warm September pattern as indicated in today's medium-range forecast which trends warmer in the 11-15-day period as indicated by ECM ENS. Almost the entire U.S. is warmer than normal as mid-September arrives.

El Nino is strengthening. Oceanic El Nino warmed to +1.5C in the Nino34 region last week. Warming to >+1.0C finally reached the Dateline. The southern oscillation index (SOI) for August is projected near -1.00 which is the second monthly stronger El Nino-style -SOI of the past 4 months.