The North Atlantic basin is record warm. The Gulf of Mexico is also somewhat warmer than normal averaging 1.0C above normal. However, during the past week the waters just off the northern Gulf Coast have cooled significantly.

June 2023 ranked 52nd warmest and 48th driest (of 129 years). The “near average” national rank was made by varying regional temperature and precipitation. The Mid-Atlantic region observed a top 10% cool regime including the 10th coolest on record in Virginia.

Today's medium-range forecast utilized the ECM ENS as the best model to identify expected medium/extended-range thermal/rainfall patterns across the U.S. However, the 00Z GFS roared hot weather into the Midwest U.S. causing a close watch by commodity markets on the U.S. AG Belt where ongoing drought is located.

Although an expected +IOD and El Nino climate pattern are expected and each should produce a dry climate for Australia, the month of June 2023 was quite wet arcing from northwest to southeast continent. The +IOD and El Nino climate patterns remain 1-3 months away!