The U.S. gas population weight heating degree day (HDD) forecast through the first third of November projects much below normal heating demand for the current week shifting to near the 30-year normal for late October and early November.

Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino remains plentiful although weakening slightly in recent months and becoming choppy in character. Implied is that mature stage of El Nino may be just ahead.

Diverging upper air currents extending southward and into the tropics from an immense jet streak across the U.S. has increased upper shear dramatically and lowering risk of late season tropical systems. Sean was downgraded to a tropical disturbance due to this factor.

Global soil moisture trend during Q3/2023 featured MUCH DRIER changes across already drought-stricken Mexico and into Texas plus North/Central Brazil to Argentina all related to the El Nino warm oceans of the far eastern tropical Pacific. Wetter soils were observed across the Northeast U.S. where record rainfall occurred and the Southwest U.S. In South America, El Nino-like conditions affected Southeast Brazil and Chile.