River gauges along the central/south-central Mississippi River indicated a recent recovery to “low water” level. However, lack of rain in the 10-day-forecast causes water levels to lower again. At Tunica Mhoon Landing, water levels dip to 8 feet below “low water” by Nov. 21. The lowest level below “low water” was 10 feet one month ago.

The upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean remains steadily very warm and supportive of maintaining the current robust oceanic El Nino episode.

The October 2023 rainfall pattern across Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and Australia featured extremes. The expected weather was dry climate due to El Nino. However, inclusion of an intensifying positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) lead to mixed observations.

What were the climate drivers in October just-ahead of today’s onset of the cold season? We begin off the Northwest Coast of Africa and southwest of Europe where a strong marine heatwave evolved during 2023 (No. 1).