Massive amounts of thunderstorm activity is percolating in the western Gulf of Mexico. A widening area of thunderstorms along a low-pressure trough emerges, lasts for many days, and produces 15-20 in. of rain near the Texas/Louisiana coast.

The southeast quadrant of Europe to Southwest Russia has averaged 3-6C warmer than normal during the past week with attendant widespread dryness. The latest 15-day forecasts widen the anomalous heat and dryness in Europe to Western Russia!

On Monday, a large area of damaging wind is likely from northeast Nebraska to southern Minnesota. Severe storms rumble across Michigan on Tuesday. Extreme heat and humidity precede the severe thunderstorm outbreaks.

AIFS projects an upper ridge developing along the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border this weekend and amplifying during the medium range. The sensible weather forecast projects very warm to hot weather beneath the ridge. High temperatures reach 35C in Ukraine to Southwest Russia with 40C possible near and east of Caspian Sea into Kazakhstan. 35-40C threaten Southeast Europe.