The latest Nino34 SSTA forecasts from the CFS V2 model confidently project moderate La Nina to finish northern hemisphere meteorological winter followed by weakening to neutral ENSO mid-year. The latest 8 ensemble members of CFS V2 forecast indicate a wide variety of ENSO phase possibilities by OCT-25 which identifies a low confidence projection.

On Wednesday, heavy rain with severe thunderstorms will develop across Texas. By Thursday, excessive rain including a severe weather threat affects the Mid-south U.S. NOAA/WPC indicates potential for several (or more) inches of rain with flood risk.

Several inches to one half foot of snow accumulated over the coastal Southeast Texas region yesterday with as much as 10.5 in. of snow in Lafayette, LA. Much of southern Louisiana received 5-10 in. of snow. Overnight, skies are clearing, and conditions are set for record cold mornings.

This week’s bitter cold produces about 265 U.S. gas population weight heating degree days (HDD). By comparison, this week is second coldest compared to recent memorable cold weeks including Cold Weather Event “Uri” from the week of 2/13/21 (260) and 2/20/21 (271), “Elliot” 12/24/22 (254), and polar vortex events from January 2024 (249) and 2015 (258).