A tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) pattern has developed in the Caribbean Sea. The upper trough slowly drifts westward this week and is replaced by a second trough next week a little further to the north. The TUTT formed by release of shortwave energy from an energetic mid-latitude flow across the central North Atlantic basin southwestward into the tropics.

The Nino SSTA regions are all within neutral range entering July. Recent warming in the Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America has eased back into the neutral range.

The NOAA 2-day forecast track indicates Chantal turns northward across central North Carolina later today and weakens completely drifting across Chesapeake Bay late tomorrow. The heavy rain/flood risk shifts to north-central South Carolina and central North Carolina today and across Eastern Virginia to near Philadelphia tomorrow.

Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm today, turn north-to-northwestward, and strike the upper coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected on the upper South Carolina Coast/Lower North Carolina Coast late tonight and Sunday. The next storm name is Chantal.