Late season subtropical/tropical trouble is brewing in the North Atlantic basin. A subtropical storm is possible east-northeast of Florida late this week while a full-blown tropical cyclone emerges in the Caribbean Sea.

The subtropical ridge over Southeast Brazil edges eastward in the 6-10-day period which allows a moisture feed from the deep tropics into central continent and a wetter forecast change.

Another very warm month was observed in October 2023 ranking 18th warmest in the 129-year climatology. The warmest states were New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region plus Arizona/New Mexico each in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. Only 9 of the 48 contiguous states averaged near normal with warmer than normal elsewhere.

River gauges along the central/south-central Mississippi River indicated a recent recovery to “low water” level. However, lack of rain in the 10-day-forecast causes water levels to lower again. At Tunica Mhoon Landing, water levels dip to 8 feet below “low water” by Nov. 21. The lowest level below “low water” was 10 feet one month ago.