Natural gas markets are concerned regarding the mid-winter El Nino analogs which end the early winter warmth and introduce colder/snowy weather for January increasing heating demand. An added concern is the emergence in the past 2 days of stratospheric warming forecasts in 12-16 days across North/Northeast Asia to the polar region.

Hurricane force wind gusts are projected across U.K. to Germany tomorrow due to a potent storm (960 MB) across southwest Scandinavia. By contrast, the high wind (60-80 mph) event in the Northeast U.S. earlier this week, was associated with a 980 MB low pressure system.

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) projects developing La Nina for MAY/JUN/JUL 2024. Other forecast models have similar projections with varying speed of (La Nina) development. Elsewhere, global SSTA forecast models maintain a warm signature particularly in the Indian Ocean where positive Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) ends and across both the North Pacific and North Atlantic as marine heat waves (MHW) expand.

The first half of December was very cold across the northern half of Europe and Western Russia while the Southern Black Sea region was mild. The pattern reverses much warmer the second half of December.