The hot weather is impressive through the weekend focused on the Ohio Valley today and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, but extreme alert-4 conditions for dangerous heat emerge Sunday and Monday (Fig. 2) in the Southeast U.S. On Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, extreme alert-4 conditions widen across the Southeast U.S. where this heatwave is most intense.

The upper ocean temperature anomaly structure in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates a new moderately deep cool layer. The warm layer just beneath the surface is beginning to weaken. The long-term ENSO outlook for later in 2025 remains in the neutral phase. However, as observed all of 2025, some models are indicating La Nina development, and a slight cooler trend has developed supportive of the La Nina outlier forecasts.

NOAA/CPC has updated their monthly long-lead probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts. Additionally, a new Seasonal Drought Forecast is issued. Of note, is the precipitation outlook for both August and AUG/SEP/OCT. The outlooks indicate a high probability of above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. The August probability forecast for above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. is exceptionally confident.

Despite proximity to land, a westward drifting low pressure area across the northern Gulf of Mexico where SST is 86-88F guarantees development of a rainstorm targeting Louisiana. Potential for tropical storm force wind near the coast, especially southeast Louisiana is likely.