Profound drought continues across the western and north-central portion of the U.S. Rainfall deficits are routinely 9-12 inches and sometimes >15 inches sprawled across the western states to the Dakotas and Minnesota. The 2-week trend indicates the rainfall shortages are steady except increasing in the Columbia Basin and the Upper Midwest particularly Minnesota into northern Iowa.

Given the historic western U.S. drought there is no surprise on the record heat observed in the West (and nationally) during June 2021.

Colorado State University has raised the 2021 seasonal activity forecast for North Atlantic tropical cyclones to 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The ACE index is now 160. The Climate Impact Company concern is amounts could be higher due to the lingering La Nina climate as defined by multi-variate ENSO index.

Unseasonably cool air stretches across Argentina into southeastern Brazil this morning. On average, temperatures are 15-20F below normal across southwest and southeast Brazil to northern Argentina and >25F below normal over Paraguay. The far southern coffee crop area in southeastern Brazil is in the low 30’s/upper 20’s (-3C to -1C) toward dawn.