Madden Julian oscillation is shifting east from the West Pacific now across the Pacific over the next 2 weeks. Initially, MJO drives a stormy West and very warm East U.S. pattern. However, in the extended-range, the chilly weather spreads across much of the U.S.

The upper trough for 2022-23 is likely a little closer to major crop areas in Brazil than last year and soils are wet across southwest and interior southeast Brazil. Consequently, a major drought affecting central and northern major crop areas in Brazil is unlikely for upcoming summer. However, drought risk to the south of this zone increases dramatically.

Look at the warm SSTA forecast across the subtropical southern hemisphere valid for mid-to-late summer. The projection by the IMME model is likely the warmest signature on record. Above and downwind warm SSTA zones, upper-level high-pressure ridging in the subtropics is generated.

Over-the-weekend all forecast models indicated a harsh dry trend across much of Europe through the next 15 days including the ECM ENS. The issue is a stalled wet upper trough off Western Europe compensated for by a broad upper ridge pattern in Europe.