The 2020-21 cool season valid October 202o to April 2021 produced a warmer-than-normal climate and below normal heating demand for the U.S. The two exceptions are the month of February which included the arctic outbreak into the Central U.S. with greatest impact on Texas and also April which was slightly cooler than normal.

There are hot spots in the 10-day forecast, most of them in Texas. The Desert Southwest into southern California is also hot at times. A heat spike is projected for the Mid-Atlantic States May 4th when temperatures surge into the 90’s!

A weekly review of the North Atlantic SSTA pattern as tropical cyclone season approaches is underway. Currently, the North Atlantic basin averages +0.55C which is somewhat warmer than normal. Most of the anomalous warmth is in the Gulf of Mexico, the subtropics and middle latitudes. The tropics are generally near normal except for sudden and recent warming of the far eastern tropical North Atlantic.

During northern hemisphere spring La Nina events have a tendency to weaken. The weakening is caused by eastward transition of the Madden Julian oscillation, an area of heavy tropical convection from very warm waters in the West Pacific tropics eastward and erasing the La Nina-biased cool waters of the tropical East Pacific. A MAJOR effort on the part of the MJO takes place the next 2 weeks.